This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using
a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on
multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (
Mw 8.5,
8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical
event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves
probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis
of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated
to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami
hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis
causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and
10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan –
including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters
considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated
horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the
stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans
highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the
stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.
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